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Conflict / Escalation
Invasion, strikes, territorial moves, military operations, and direct escalation risk.
57 live markets·$113M total vol·Next resolves Jun 30
Structure
Protection horizon
0 selected
IRAN
Who will enter Iran by June 30?
Pick outcome8 options
ResolvesJun 30
$16M Vol.$52K Liq.
IRAN
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?
ResolvesJun 30
$3M Vol.$127K Liq.
ISRAEL
Israel military action against Yemen by...?
ResolvesJun 30
$2M Vol.$35K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesJun 30
$2M Vol.$13K Liq.
UKRAINE
Which cities will Russia enter by June 30?
Pick outcome8 options
ResolvesJun 30
$2M Vol.$37K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesJun 30
$895K Vol.$25K Liq.
IRAN
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by...?
ResolvesJun 30
$792K Vol.$23K Liq.
ISRAEL
Israel military action against Damascus by...?
ResolvesJun 30
$190K Vol.$18K Liq.
GAZA
Will Israel annex Gaza territory by June 30 2026?
ResolvesJun 30
$107K Vol.$16K Liq.
GAZA
Greta Thunberg arrested by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesJun 30
$72K Vol.$485 Liq.
GAZA
Will any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?
ResolvesJun 30
$61K Vol.$17K Liq.
MIDEAST
Will Netanyahu publicly insult Trump by June 30?
ResolvesJun 30
$32K Vol.$16K Liq.
IRAN
Nechirvan Barzani out as Kurdistan Regional Government President?
ResolvesJun 30
$17K Vol.$15K Liq.
GAZA
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30?
ResolvesJun 30
$66K Vol.$19K Liq.
GAZA
Will Hamas agree to disarm by...?
ResolvesJun 30
$2M Vol.$35K Liq.
IRAN
Who will attend the NATO Summit?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesJul 8
$215K Vol.$39K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Ukraine re-enter Hryshyne by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesJul 31
$7K Vol.$2K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesSep 30
$896K Vol.$710 Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by...?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesSep 30
$358K Vol.$3K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Novyi Donbas by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesSep 30
$185K Vol.$1K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by...?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesSep 30
$143K Vol.$6K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesSep 30
$69K Vol.$763 Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesSep 30
$67K Vol.$517 Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Stavky by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesSep 30
$19K Vol.$1K Liq.
MIDEAST
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$39M Vol.$362K Liq.
MIDEAST
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
ResolvesDec 31
$8M Vol.$77K Liq.
MIDEAST
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
Pick outcome12 options
ResolvesDec 31
$7M Vol.$14K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will US withdraw from NATO by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$6M Vol.$78K Liq.
CONFLICT
US strike on Mexico by...?
ResolvesDec 31
$3M Vol.$22K Liq.
UKRAINE
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$3M Vol.$32K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$2M Vol.$4K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$2M Vol.$244K Liq.
CONFLICT
How many different countries will the US conduct military action against in 2026?
Pick outcome8 options
ResolvesDec 31
$2M Vol.$26K Liq.
UKRAINE
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$1M Vol.$34K Liq.
GAZA
Which country will join Abraham Accords before 2027?
Pick outcome12 options
ResolvesDec 31
$786K Vol.$9K Liq.
CONFLICT
Which countries will Donald Trump visit in 2026?
Pick outcome9 options
ResolvesDec 31
$526K Vol.$14K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
Pick outcome4 options
ResolvesDec 31
$491K Vol.$37K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture Sloviansk by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$356K Vol.$39K Liq.
CONFLICT
Will Trump visit Greenland by...?
ResolvesDec 31
$253K Vol.$6K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Lyman by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$251K Vol.$11K Liq.
CONFLICT
Will the U.S. invade a Latin American country in 2026?
ResolvesDec 31
$244K Vol.$25K Liq.
UKRAINE
Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
Pick outcome8 options
ResolvesDec 31
$239K Vol.$18K Liq.
ISRAEL
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$223K Vol.$30K Liq.
GAZA
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$186K Vol.$48K Liq.
MIDEAST
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026?
ResolvesDec 31
$161K Vol.$19K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesDec 31
$151K Vol.$929 Liq.
GAZA
Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$132K Vol.$3K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by...?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesDec 31
$127K Vol.$3K Liq.
IRAN
KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31?
ResolvesDec 31
$111K Vol.$13K Liq.
CONFLICT
NATO article 5 before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$103K Vol.$39K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia enter Pokrovskoe by...?
ResolvesDec 31
$87K Vol.$1K Liq.
GAZA
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$87K Vol.$15K Liq.
GAZA
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?
ResolvesDec 31
$80K Vol.$21K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture Myropillia by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$61K Vol.$2K Liq.
MIDEAST
Will any country expel an Israeli ambassador by December 31?
ResolvesDec 31
$37K Vol.$5K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by...?
Pick outcome2 options
ResolvesDec 31
$10K Vol.$7K Liq.
UKRAINE
Will Russia capture Lyman by...?
Pick outcome3 options
ResolvesDec 31
$3M Vol.$36K Liq.