Business

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
0 (0 bps)
$4M Vol.
51%50.7¢
1 (25 bps)
$1M Vol.
24%23.5¢
2 (50 bps)
$1M Vol.
14%14.5¢
3 (75 bps)
$992K Vol.
7%6.5¢
4 (100 bps)
$1M Vol.
3%2.9¢
5 (125 bps)
$1M Vol.
1%1.1¢
12+ (300+ bps)
$2M Vol.
1%0.9¢
6 (150 bps)
$2M Vol.
1%0.5¢
7 (175 bps)
$1000K Vol.
<1%0.4¢
8 (200 bps)
$1M Vol.
<1%0.4¢
9 (225 bps)
$2M Vol.
<1%0.3¢
10 (250 bps)
$2M Vol.
<1%0.3¢
11 (275 bps)
$2M Vol.
<1%0.3¢
Principal Protected Note

0 (0 bps)

If 0 (0 bps) wins

16.2%APY

$

Max $311,585.00 · limited by Polymarket depth

Fully conditional
Conditional up to 16.2%Fixed up to 8.5%
PT tokenPT-superUSDC-26NOV2026
UnderlyingsuperUSDC (Stablecoin)
Pendle pool$56K TVL · 8.5% base
Polymarket$71K Liq.
Max slippage
Principal + fixed yield$954.15
Conditional yield premium$45.85
Total invested$1,000.00

If 0 (0 bps) wins

by Nov 26, 2026

$1,090.43

16.2% APY

If 0 (0 bps) does not win

principal only

$1,000.00

superUSDC

PT swap on Mainnet · Bet on Polymarket

Timeline

Market CreatedSep 29, 2025
Market EndsDec 31, 2026
Market ResolutionPending